Playoff alchemy, Part 3

The NCHSAA has churned the ADM numbers provided by the DPI (the source of the enrollment figures I discussed earlier in the week) through some sort of secret decoder ring and presented them to the world.

For some reason, several of the figures are higher than originally indicated. Other numbers are identical. Hickory is one of those that has higher numbers than previously indicated. So once again the Red Tornadoes will be heading into the 3AA West bracket for the playoffs.

I don't know what caused the discrepancy in numbers or why some numbers are different while others are identical. It's a moot point since the NCHSAA's figures are the "official" ones. The "official" numbers that the NCHSAA has presented for the Unifour schools are as follows:

4A
South Caldwell 1,755
Alexander Central 1,655
Freedom 1,293
East Burke 1,123

3A
Hickory 1,366
St. Stephens 1,288
Fred T. Foard 1,103

2A
Hibriten 1,156
Patton 1,008
West Caldwell 974
Bunker Hill 935
Bandys 917
Newton-Conover 853
Maiden 837
Draughn 723

The other new development occurred last night when Maiden beat St. Stephens. That loss dropped the Indians into a tie with Hickory in the CVAC. How's that for a nasty trick-or-treat for the Trailer Park folks? If last night had been the end of the season then the Indians would still have the edge on Hickory thanks to their historic victory over the Red Tornadoes earlier in the season.

However, with one week to go the Indians now must face Fred T. Foard while Hickory gets Bunker Hill. This means that, barring upsets, Hickory should finish a game ahead of St. Stephens and thus earn the CVAC's second and final automatic playoff berth. Oh, snap!

In addition to cancelling out whatever joy the Indians took in finally getting a win over Hickory, finishing ahead of St. Stephens will allow Hickory to get seeded as a conference #2, which is significantly better than being a wildcard bracket filler. It could even mean getting a home game in the first round. While it's true that home field advantage hasn't been worth much this season for the Red Tornadoes it's still better than hitting the road in the playoffs.

Stay tuned.

Playoff alchemy, Part 2

In light of what I posted the other day about the likelihood of Hickory facing either West Rowan, Tuscola or Carver (in no particular order) there has been a new wrinkle added to the scenario.

It is confirmed that Carver has forfeited its September 5th victory over West Forsyth due to the use of an ineligible player. What does this mean for Carver? Well, now the Yellow Jackets will not be in the running for the #1 seed in the 3A West bracket.

Instead of being seeded as a 10-0 team Carver will now be considered a 9-1 team. So now it would be Tuscola and West Rowan flipping a coin to determine who gets the #1 and #2 seeds. Meanwhile, assuming that Fred T. Foard can beat Bandys tomorrow night and St. Stephens next week the Tigers will be treated as a 9-1 team, too.

Unless Hickory slips past St. Stephens to get that coveted automatic berth the Red Tornadoes will probably play the #3 or #4 seed. One of those teams will be Carver. The other will be Fred T. Foard.

Long story short...Hickory could face Fred T. Foard in the first round of the playoffs. Let that sink in for a little bit...

HERE WE GO, TORNADOES!!

Playoff alchemy, Part 1

The ADM numbers have been released, giving us a clearer idea as to how the playoffs will shape up.

"ADM" stands for "Average Daily Membership" which is basically the number that represents the size of a school's enrollment. This is the same kind of number that determines classifications every four years. For playoff purposes the ADM number determines whether a team goes into the "A" or "AA" bracket.

Since the playoffs were expanded in 2002 Hickory has always participated in the 3AA West bracket. But the latest ADM numbers indicate that the Red Tornadoes may be headed into the 3A West this season.

The ADMs of the 15 Unifour schools are as follows:

Alexander Central 1,655
South Caldwell 1,599
Freedom 1,293
East Burke 1,123

St. Stephens 1,288
Hickory 1,184
Fred T. Foard 1,103

Hibriten 1,048
Patton 1,008
Bunker Hill 935
Bandys 917
West Caldwell 879
Maiden 837
Newton-Conover 751
Draughn 723

Hickory was on the bubble last season, flirting with going 3A but in the end did wind up as the #1 seed in 3AA. But with another drop in ADM (in 2007 Hickory's ADM was 1,265) my cyphering has the Red Tornadoes just missing the cutoff for 3AA.

St. Stephens will definitely go into the 3AA West again this season. There is also no question that Fred T. Foard will go into the 3A West. Based on what I've seen so far, I believe that Hickory will join Foard in the 3A West bracket.

I said this time last week that Hickory needed to win out in order to clinch the CVAC's second automatic playoff berth. Bandys came through for us by tagging Saint with a third conference loss. That means that the Indians will probably wind up with four CVAC losses. And the way that Maiden is playing right now they could also knock off the Indians. In fact I wouldn't even consider that an upset anymore.

But even if Hickory doesn't get an automatic berth they are still almost guaranteed a wildcard berth. It would take three straight losses to keep Hickory out altogether. At worst Hickory should finish 6-5 overall and 5-4 in the CVAC. For seeding purposes the loss to Statesville will be dropped. Which means that Hickory would be considered to have a 6-4 record, including five conference wins. That will be more than enough to get into the dance.

A Hickory win tonight against Hibriten would set up the Tornadoes to go into the playoffs with an "adjusted record" of 7-3. The significance of that would be a higher seed and (in theory) a more manageable first-round opponent. I don't see Hickory getting a home game in the first round this year. So get ready to travel.

And where will the Tornadoes travel to? Assuming that I'm right that Hickory is destined for the 3A West bracket and based on current information (prior to tonight's make-up games) I estimate that Hickory's first-round opponent will be one of the following:

West Rowan
Fred T. Foard
Anson County
Western Alamance
Asheville
North Buncombe

Just some Monday morning food for thought.

GO HICKORY!!