Deconstructing the 3A Baker's Dozen

I've just got one question for the coaches of North Carolina: Where's the love people?

Let me just state for the record that yes, I know that pre-season polls are basically meaningless in terms of predicting which teams will walk off the field as state champions in December. Everything will be won or lost on the field, week in and week out. But that doesn't mean that polls are useless. In my opinion polls do have two primary functions. They are conversation starters. Who can resist joining the debate about who belongs in the rankings but isn't and who is in the rankings that shouldn't be. The other function is to give some respect to the teams who have made a name for themselves in past seasons. A pre-season poll is really all about what has happened before - not what will happen in the future.

With this in mind I'd like to talk about the fact that despite a 13-1 record and a conference championship in 2007 the Red Tornadoes were left out of NCPreps.com's pre-season Baker's Dozen ranking. It's especially curious when you consider that Hickory has more returning starters than some of the teams who had lesser records in 2007. So, the teams that I'm questioning did not do as well as the Red Tornadoes nor do they have as many starters returning. So what's the deal?

The first thing you have to remember about the pre-season Baker's Dozen is that it is the only time when the rankings are not based on a "power" formula. The real Baker's Dozen is the product of a remarkably accurate power-ranking system devised and scrupulously guarded by Arnold Solomon, the creator of NCPreps. Those rankings won't come out until the season is underway. The pre-season Dozen, however, is a coaches poll that is derived from responses to information-gathering questionaires that go out each year to all of the state's coaches. So maybe it's asking too much for coaches in Manteo and Whalebone Junction to keep Hickory in mind when from their point of view Raleigh is considered "way out west."

It's more interesting to examine the teams that did make the Dozen, some of whom might surprise the average fan. So now I will take a quick look at each of the teams in the 3A Baker's Dozen.

Rocky Mount is an old cotton and tobacco center located in eastern North Carolina. The town derives its name from the rocky mound located at the falls of the Tar River. It is the home of the top-ranked Rocky Mount Gryphons. I have no problem with the Gryphons being ranked #1. The champions of the New 6 Conference, the Gryphons rolled to a 14-0 record last season before falling to the eventual 3A champion, Western Alamance. The Gryphons return 16 starters from that squad and the consensus around the state is that this should be Rocky Mount's year.

To accomplish their goal of winning a state title the Gryphons will have to find a way to get past the 2007 Class 3A champ, #2-ranked Western Alamance. The Warriors have won four consecutive East Region titles and finally finished the drill by crushing North Gaston in the 2007 finals. The three previous trips to the championship game had all ended in frustration for the Warriors. Western lost a ton of talent off last year's juggernaut but head coach Hal Capps is one of the best in the state in any classification and nobody runs the spread offense like the Warriors. Most importantly, nobody has a quarterback as good as senior superstar Donald Britt. The 2008 East Region final could easily be a rematch between Rocky Mount and Western Alamance.

Coming in at #3 are the Cougars of Charlotte Catholic. The Cougars have won four consecutive West Region titles and a couple of state titles (2004 and 2005). The amazing thing about Catholic's recent run of success is that in 2004 the Cougars won the 2AA state title and then, the very next year, moved up in classification and still wound up winning the 3AA title. Both of those championship squads finished with 16-0 records. Like Western Alamance (the team that Catholic defeated for the title in 2005) the Cougars lost several key players to graduation but do boast a bluechipper in tight end Tucker Windle. More importantly Catholic has the benefit of head coach Jim Oddo's decades of experience to build on. There are two excellent head coaches in the Queen City. Tommy Knotts of Independence is one and Jim Oddo is the other. As long as Oddo's machine is cranking properly the Cougars will always be standing in the way of other teams' state title hopes. Just ask Kannapolis. The Wonders have been eliminated three years in a row by the Cougars. It remains to be seen if Hickory will get a shot at redemption against Catholic this season.

The #4 team in the poll is Dudley, the team that defeated Catholic in the 3AA finals last season. The remarkable thing about the Panthers is that although they won the 3AA state title they finished the regular season third in their conference. That's because they play in the dreaded Triad Conference, home of Western Alamance and also Northeast Guilford (more about them later). You have to love high school football when a team can be the best in the state...yet not even second-best in its own conference. Playing in such a tough conference helps the Panthers in a power poll but it can also put some checkmarks in the loss column. In the end, however, it might not make a difference. The Panthers proved that records can be deceiving.

The Red Raiders of South Point come in at #5 in the poll. It's not often you see the wishbone anymore but the Raiders think the "redbone" (their word for it) is great and they're sticking with it. It certainly served them well in 2003 when they ran wild on the rest of the competition enroute to the 3A state title. The defending champ of the Big South Conference, South Point has eight starters back on offense (13 starters in all) and is making noises reminiscent of the 2003 pre-season. It's difficult for teams who aren't familiar with triple-option football to prepare for it in a week, so that will almost always work to South Point's advantage. If their defense comes together effectively then the Red Raiders could definitely make a run for the title. But first they'll have to make a run for the border in the season opener when they cross the line to tangle with the Clover Blue Eagles. Clover is the defending Class 4A Div. II champions of South Carolina. I'll go ahead and dub it the Garnet & Gold Report's Carolinas game of the week. How does that sound?

I have no problem with the top five teams in the poll. They have all proven themselves in the past and should be very strong in '08. But after South Point things become problematic.

Hertford Co. is ranked #6. Like Hickory the Hertford Bears play in a mixed 3A/2A conference. But unlike the Tornadoes, the Bears only tied for second place in the Northeastern Coastal Conference with Currituck Co. The conference champion was Bertie Co. Yes, Hertford did slap a hurtin' on Parkland and Southern Durham to start the 2007 season but got crushed by Rocky Mount and Bertie Co. as well as getting knocked off by a sub-.500 Pasquotank squad. Hertford was eliminated in the second round of the 3A playoffs by Western Alamance. Yes, head coach Diego Hasty does welcome back 17 starters from last year's 9-4 team but I really don't think they belong in the top six in the state. They can prove me wrong by winning on the road at Southern Durham, Rocky Mount, Currituck and Bertie. Good luck with that.

Winston-Salem is represented in the 3A polls by the Carver Yellow Jackets. In 2007 Jackets built a 12-game winning streak between a season-opening loss to Dudley and a playoff defeat at the hands of the Asheville Cougars. Carver reps the Piedmont Triad Conference and was the only team to beat fellow conference member Glenn during the regular season. Coach Brent David's Jackets run the Wing-T and do it effectively. They return eight starters from last year's offense and five more on the defensive side of the ball. They should be primed to make a deep run in the 3A playoffs one last time before shifting down to Class 2A in 2009. The Piedmont Triad Conference has been a slaughterhouse in previous seasons but 2007 was a different story. Carver and Glenn were the only teams in the league with winning records. Parkland and T.W. Andrews will have to get much better if they are to help Carver's power ranking.

At #8 is Kannapolis, aka Wonderland. The Wonders boast one of the state's top running backs in Artrele Louis and a ton of tradition. Louis is one of 12 starters returning for head coach Ron Massey and the Wonders are expected to battle the Anson Co. Bearcats for the South Piedmont Conference championship, which they shared last season. The schedule is not particularly helpful to the K-Town squad this season as the Wonders must play at Mooresville, Anson Co. and Concord. But when all is said and done the real question is this: Can they get over the major hump that Catholic represents in the playoffs? I get the feeling that Round 4 of that scuffle is on tap in 2008. It's been a decade since the incomparable Nick Maddox led the Wonders to a state title. The folks in Kannapolis think that it's been too long. We'll just have to see about that.

Northeast Guilford comes in at #9 and the Rams from McLeansville are the third team from the Triad Conference to make the Dozen. Northeast defeated Dudley in the regular season but fell in a 2nd-round playoff rematch with the Panthers. The victory over Dudley was the highlight of Northeast's season, which ended with a 10-3 record. This season they'll have six returning starters to crank up the ol' "wingbone" offense (their terminology) and another seven coming back on the defensive side. I don't think Northeast is really a top nine team but there is value in playing tough opponents when it comes to power rankings. Then again the Rams aren't known for great consistency and rarely put back-to-back great seasons together. Don't be surprised to see them finish with a 7-5 or 6-6 record.

At #10 are the Vikings of White Oak High School in Jacksonville. I don't agree with this one at all. The Vikings return only 11 starters from a 6-6 team. There are several strong teams from the Jacksonville area in different classifications (particularly Class 2A) but White Oak is definitely not a threat in football. Now if you want to talk soccer then...well, you know. So I really have no clue as to what this is all about. As a member of the Mideastern Conference the Vikings have to deal with the defending Class 4A champions from Wilmington's Hoggard High. I'll predict that White Oak makes the playoffs again but that's about it.

At #11 is Southwest Edgecombe. Now what is wrong with this pick you ask? Well, it is the second team from Edgecombe County to make the Dozen. The other one is Rocky Mount. I'm sorry but I don't believe that there is enough talent in the greater Pinetops metropolitan area or history to support Southwest Edgecombe's inclusion here. They were pretty good last year (3-2 in the conference and 8-3 overall) but they only have 10 returning starters. I seem to recall that there was similar hype swirling around them this time last year. I'm not seeing it, though. The Cougars finished 3rd in their conference and that's about where I think they'll finish this season, too. That does not make them a good candidate for a #11 ranking.

J.F. Webb is the #12 team and is a perfect example of the problem with these kinds of polls. Yes, the boys from Oxford did have a great season last year (11-4) before losing to Dudley in the 3AA East Region championship. But it was a special year for the Warriors, not a typical one. There is no way they will come close to duplicating their success from last year. They certainly don't have the kind of record that Hickory has built over the past 13 or so seasons. This one was strictly due to the memory of a good record in 2007 and a good showing against eventual champ Dudley in the playoffs. This will probably be the last time we see them ranked.

Last and perhaps least is the #13 team, Eastern Alamance. First of all, there are too many other great 3A teams around the state that could and should be ranked in the Dozen. The Eagles of Eastern Alamance have had a couple of strong years. In 2006 they were very good. But before that they were downright awful. Head coach John Kirby welcomes back only nine starters from last year's 9-3 team that finished in a three-way tie for the Mid State Conference crown along with J.F. Webb and South Granville. They will learn a lot about themselves immediately when they face cross-county rival Western Alamance in the first game of the season. There is already tremendous excitement building for the matchup. Look for standing room only at Western when the Eagles bring their version of the spread on August 22nd. Other major games on the schedule include rumbles with Cummings and Williams from Burlington (the latter on the road) in addition to visits by South Granville and J.F. Webb. Is #13 unlucky for the Eagles? Maybe...

Notably absent from the Dozen in addition to Hickory are Asheville, Glenn, T.C. Roberson, Anson Co. and West Rowan. I'm not sure why there is such a distinct East Region bias since it's the West Region of Class 3A that has tended to dominate the state over the years. Perhaps it's because for the first time in a long time the East teams swept the state championship games. Of course other than the championship games there is almost no head-to-head competition between teams from the East and West. North Carolina is one of the few states I can think of where there is literally no on-field interaction between teams from opposite ends of the state. Gas prices will ensure that this remains the case. I would love to see more games between the two regions but I'm not holding my breath.

Afterall, this is all just conversation.