Hickory vs. Patton

Tyshon Chisholm, Alex Martin vs. Patton JV in 2007

For obvious reasons there is basically no history between the Red Tornadoes and the Panthers. Hickory will, however, forever be the answer to this trivia question: "Which team gave Patton it's first-ever loss in a football game?"

So I thought I would do something a little different this week and do a direct comparison of the two teams by units. In other words, quarterback comparison, offensive line comparison, receivers, etc. By the way, most of the stats to which I will be referring can also be found on the Gameday Central page. So let's see where this takes me, shall we?

QUARTERBACK: Both schools boast senior quarterbacks. But that's where the similarities end. Kevin Shelton has two main responsibilities when the ball is snapped. He throws a pass or hands off to a running back. He is not a threat to run himself although he has had to run for his life a few times this season. Patton's Cody Story, on the other hand, is called upon to run the ball in designed plays. He has amassed nearly 200 yards rushing this season. But if the measure of these quarterbacks, statistically, is in their ability to pass the football then I have to give Shelton the advantage over Story. Shelton (59-114-5, 841 yds, 10 TDs) has completed more passes than Story (21-45-1, 366 yds, 4 TDs) has attempted so naturally the former would have more yards. But Shelton also has a significantly higher completion percentage (52% compared to 47%). This means that either Shelton is more accurate, his receivers are more sure-handed, or both. Either way, it favors Hickory. Both quarterbacks have done a good job of not throwing interceptions. Story has only one interception on his record and it occurred just last week. Shelton only threw two interceptions in his first six games (one of which was a tipped ball). Last week, of course, was a different story. Nevertheless, Shelton has thrown twice as many touchdowns as interceptions.

Advantage: Hickory

RUNNING BACKS: Patton has actually done a little better than Hickory running the football. The Panthers average 185 yards per game on the ground while Hickory averages 174. This is despite the fact that Hickory's primary rusher, Rakim Barrett, has more yards and a better per-carry average than Patton's main man, Brandon Bethel. To be more specific, Barrett has 858 yards and eight touchdowns on 138 carries. He averages 6.2 yards per carry. Bethel has 629 yards and three touchdowns on 118 carries. His per carry average is 5.3. But Patton has gotten more production out of its other rushers (especially the quarterback position) than has Hickory. In addition to Brandon Bethel and Cody Story the Panthers rely heavily on their big freshman fullback, Winfield Johnson. Hickory's other running backs, Kyshell Geter and Tyshon Chisholm, have struggled for much of the season. Chisholm has looked good when he gets the ball but his carries have been limited. A new wrinkle in the running game has been the introduction of the direct snap to Trevin Parks. This new formation has been used sparingly but it almost always produces positive yards. Last week against Newton-Conover Parks picked up 58 yards on just four carries (14.5 yards per carry) when the ball was snapped to him.

Advantage: Toss-up.

OFFENSIVE LINE: In the absence of reliable stats the best way to judge an O-Line is to check on a team's yardage production. As stated above, Patton has a 185-174 edge in per-game rushing average. But Hickory holds a 121-64 edge in per-game passing yardage. Hickory outgains Patton in total yardage, 295.1 to 249.7, which is substantial. Hickory also gains more first downs per game (14-9). I don't have stats to support it but I would guess that Hickory also has a edge in time-of-possession. I have been concerned about the state of the O-line at times this season but based on this criteria I have to say that Hickory is more effective on the line of scrimmage.

Advantage: Hickory

RECEIVERS: This is an area where Hickory should have a clear advantage. As already mentioned, Hickory holds a considerable advantage in passing yardage and half of the credit automatically goes to the receiving corps. Hickory's receivers are led by senior Trevin Parks with 22 receptions for 355 yards and five touchdowns. He is a clutch performer who not only makes tough catches but has a knack for picking up yardage after the catch. Junior Anthony Wilson is a similar type of receiver. Patton's top receiver is Zack Cole, a lanky sophomore who has 13 receptions for 302 yards and five touchdowns. Senior wide receiver Gil Logan had a big game for the Panthers in last week's loss to Newton-Conover. While Patton is capable of coming up with a big play through the air the edge here belongs to Hickory.

Advantage: Hickory

DEFENSE: Without having seen Patton play in person it's hard to evaluate the components of the defense. I have no way of assessing whether Hickory's defensive line is better than Patton's in a substantive way. I have Hickory's defensive stats but nothing for Patton. So, again, I have to rely on the overall stats of rushing defense, passing defense, total defense, scoring defense and turnover ratio. Hickory's defense has been marginally better at stopping the run. Hickory is currently allowing 204.2 yards rushing per game while Patton is giving up 222.1 yards. So neither defense has exactly been a stone wall in that regard. They are both somewhere in the middle of the CVAC rankings in that category. Hickory is also better, statistically, in stopping the pass. Hickory is allowing 80.7 yards per game to Patton's 106.1 and has double the number of interceptions. Both teams have given up seven touchdown passes. Scoring defense is also a wash as both teams are allowing an average of 27 points per game. Both teams are exactly even in turnover ratio. Hickory and Patton have both committed 15 turnovers and caused 15 turnovers. In the end, Hickory allows 44 yards less than Patton and has the edge in varsity experience.

Advantage: Hickory

COACHING: Hickory has been in the varsity football business since 1923. Patton has only been at it for a few months. The fact that the Red Tornadoes and Panthers have identical overall and CVAC records at this point in the season should raise some eyebrows. I'm going to reserve judgment on this category until after the game. The winner will show us who is doing a better job in 2008.

INTANGIBLES: Who wants it more, Hickory or Patton? Who has more to lose? I guarantee the Patton fans are wanting to see the Panthers make a statement in this one. They left Frank Barger Stadium last year after losing for the first time convinced that they had been robbed. I know this for a fact because I was approached by a couple of them who insisted that the officials had been biased and incompetent. The facts don't support that argument, of course, but that doesn't matter to the Panther faithful. Plus I have to believe that they see Hickory as being vulnerable right now. The Red Tornadoes are reeling from a pair of tough losses and everybody in the area is scratching their heads trying to understand why Hickory is performing so poorly. Furthermore, for a first-year varsity program the Panthers are doing awfully well. Obviously we have seen in the last few years teams that have been playing football for decades going 0-11. Patton has three wins this season no matter what else happens. So however you slice it the Panthers don't have much to lose but a lot to gain. On the other hand, Hickory desperately needs a win. I've already discussed how crucial it is that Hickory win the rest of its games in order to qualify for one of the CVAC's two 3A playoff berths. Hickory hasn't lost three games in a row during a season since 2000. Prior to that season you had to look all the way back to 1994 to find such a streak. The Red Tornadoes simply can't afford to keep dropping games. I say that Hickory needs the victory a lot more and therefore should want the victory a lot more.

Advantage: Hickory

GO HICKORY!!!