Playoff alchemy, Part 1

The ADM numbers have been released, giving us a clearer idea as to how the playoffs will shape up.

"ADM" stands for "Average Daily Membership" which is basically the number that represents the size of a school's enrollment. This is the same kind of number that determines classifications every four years. For playoff purposes the ADM number determines whether a team goes into the "A" or "AA" bracket.

Since the playoffs were expanded in 2002 Hickory has always participated in the 3AA West bracket. But the latest ADM numbers indicate that the Red Tornadoes may be headed into the 3A West this season.

The ADMs of the 15 Unifour schools are as follows:

Alexander Central 1,655
South Caldwell 1,599
Freedom 1,293
East Burke 1,123

St. Stephens 1,288
Hickory 1,184
Fred T. Foard 1,103

Hibriten 1,048
Patton 1,008
Bunker Hill 935
Bandys 917
West Caldwell 879
Maiden 837
Newton-Conover 751
Draughn 723

Hickory was on the bubble last season, flirting with going 3A but in the end did wind up as the #1 seed in 3AA. But with another drop in ADM (in 2007 Hickory's ADM was 1,265) my cyphering has the Red Tornadoes just missing the cutoff for 3AA.

St. Stephens will definitely go into the 3AA West again this season. There is also no question that Fred T. Foard will go into the 3A West. Based on what I've seen so far, I believe that Hickory will join Foard in the 3A West bracket.

I said this time last week that Hickory needed to win out in order to clinch the CVAC's second automatic playoff berth. Bandys came through for us by tagging Saint with a third conference loss. That means that the Indians will probably wind up with four CVAC losses. And the way that Maiden is playing right now they could also knock off the Indians. In fact I wouldn't even consider that an upset anymore.

But even if Hickory doesn't get an automatic berth they are still almost guaranteed a wildcard berth. It would take three straight losses to keep Hickory out altogether. At worst Hickory should finish 6-5 overall and 5-4 in the CVAC. For seeding purposes the loss to Statesville will be dropped. Which means that Hickory would be considered to have a 6-4 record, including five conference wins. That will be more than enough to get into the dance.

A Hickory win tonight against Hibriten would set up the Tornadoes to go into the playoffs with an "adjusted record" of 7-3. The significance of that would be a higher seed and (in theory) a more manageable first-round opponent. I don't see Hickory getting a home game in the first round this year. So get ready to travel.

And where will the Tornadoes travel to? Assuming that I'm right that Hickory is destined for the 3A West bracket and based on current information (prior to tonight's make-up games) I estimate that Hickory's first-round opponent will be one of the following:

West Rowan
Fred T. Foard
Anson County
Western Alamance
Asheville
North Buncombe

Just some Monday morning food for thought.

GO HICKORY!!