Friday, September 26, 2008

Breaking down this week's CVAC games

Tonight's games should provide some clarity in the murky CVAC title chase. Somebody is guaranteed to get their first loss of the season when Newton-Conover visits Fred T. Foard. And if St. Stephens can keep the momentum going following last week's historic win over Hickory, the Indians might be able to knock Hibriten from the ranks of the unbeaten. The flip side of that coin is that a Hibriten victory will eliminate the Indians from title contention. Three other teams, Hickory, Patton and Bunker Hill are hoping to stay in the hunt. There are also playoff implications for a couple of teams. There are only two playoff berths available for the CVAC's three Class 3A teams. For the first time in the league's short history the playoff race for the 3A schools is wide open.

NEWTON-CONOVER (2-0, 4-0) AT FOARD (2-0, 4-0)

Series Notes: The Red Devils have won seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry, including the last three. Last season the Tigers hung with the Red Devils for most of three quarters before bowing out. Newton scored 16 unanswered points to turn a slim 21-17 lead into a 37-17 final.

What to look for tonight: Newton-Conover is the #3 team in the AP poll for Class 2A while the Tigers are now receiving votes in the Class 3A poll. A win tonight would surely push Foard into the state's top 10 for the first time since...when? But that's all just window dressing. The real issue at stake here is the race for the CVAC title. Newton shared the title in 2005 and 2006. Fred T. Foard hasn't competed for a conference championship since 2000. Strength of schedule favors the Red Devils but the Tigers have steamrolled over the opposition this season and are probably as well-equipped to deal with the Red Devils as anybody in the Unifour. The Tigers have played virtually flawless football this season. An argument could be made, however, that tonight's game is the first real test for Foard. Starting tonight, the Tigers could be facing a three-game losing streak (Hickory and Hibriten are their next two opponents). The key matchup tonight will be Newton's explosive offense versus Foard's league-leading defense. As I mentioned a couple of days ago the Tigers have a tendency to jump all over the opposition in the first half and force them to be one-dimensional. Newton plays rope-a-dope in the first half and then relies on halftime adjustments and occasionally a thrown chair by the head coach to pulverize teams in the second half. If Newton falls behind early in the contest the Red Devils may not be able to come back against the Tigers. On the other hand, Foard has not yet been tested in the latter stages of a game. The pressure of a tight ballgame with time running out may derail the Tigers. The Red Devils have been tested and have not blinked. We'll see if the Tigers have got the nerve.

HIBRITEN (2-0, 4-0) AT ST. STEPHENS (1-1, 3-1)

Series Notes: The Panthers have won three in a row in this series. Prior to 2005 St. Stephens had owned Hibriten, winning five straight. Last season the Indians took the Panthers into overtime before falling on the road, 27-24.

What to look for Saturday tonight: The Panthers and Indians are in a situation that is very similar to Newton-Conover and Fred T. Foard. The only difference is that St. Stephens has already visited Newton's woodshed. Hibriten wants to keep pace with Newton-Conover while St. Stephens wants to avoid being eliminated from the title chase. The Indians also don't want to fall behind Foard and Hickory in the battle for the league's two Class 3A playoff berths. St. Stephens was in this position last year, too. In 2007 the Indians took a 3-0 record into their game with Hickory only to lose it by a single point in the final seconds of the contest. St. Stephens went to Lenoir the next week and lost to Hibriten. So for the second week in a row the Indians are looking to avoid a repeat of history. The Panthers have played all but one of their games this season on the road and have not been hurt by the experience at all. Hibriten hung tough in North Wilkesboro and came away with a big win over Wilkes Central. Indian Stadium will be rockin' Saturday night but nothing that the Panthers can't handle. This contest will probably turn on three things: defense, special teams and turnovers. It may be that Saint's best weapon is kicker Brandon Hall. If he can do to the Panthers what he did to Hickory then Hibriten might have trouble putting points on the board. By the same token, Quin Smith is a game-changer and has the ability to disrupt anything the Indians might attempt on offense. Whichever team protects the football best will win.

BUNKER HILL (1-1, 1-3) AT PATTON (1-1, 2-2)

Series Record: This is the first meeting between these two juggernauts.

What to look for tonight: Here we have another good news, bad news situation. The good news is that both teams are currently tied for second place in the CVAC with one conference win apiece. The bad news is that there are no more West Caldwell's on their schedules. The good news is that somebody is going to get a win tonight. The bad news is that neither team will win another game this season. I have to give the nod to Patton in this contest because they have the stronger rushing attack and a better defense. The Panther backfield has scoring threats in running backs Brandon Bethel and Winfield Johnson but also a quarterback - Cody Story - who can beat a defense with his legs. When he airs it out Story likes to look for sophomore receiver Zack Cole, who averages 25 yards per reception. Bunker Hill will continue to rely on sophomore running back Devontaye Wilson and junior quarterback Cameron Beard. This outcome of this one is really anybody's guess. If Patton gets a win tonight they will looking to sneak up on somebody and get the required fourth win to become eligible for the playoffs. That, the homefield advantage and the natural enthusiasm of a new program should help the Panthers keep moving in the right direction.

WEST CALDWELL (0-2, 0-4) AT BANDYS (0-2, 1-3)

Series Notes: Bandys holds a comfortable 9-2 advantage in this series. The Trojans have no fear of the Warriors when playing at home, either. West Caldwell has never won a game at Butler Stadium.

What to look for Saturday night: Obviously Bandys is not the program that it once was but with a week off to pull things together the Trojans definitely have enough offense to blow the Warriors away. Mike Setzer's team is learning and growing but I don't see them standing up to the passing attack that we know Kyle Houser possesses. Plus I was impressed with how well Bandys ran the ball against us in the second half. If the Trojans can duplicate that effort again tomorrow night then they should roll over West Caldwell...for whatever that's worth.

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